On the weekend before Halloween, a cultist lured five Internet users of an online discussion board (who thought of themselves as “investigators”) to one of the most remote and communications-inhibited areas in the continental United States. Or did they? This ARG was so convincing that the entire “web game horror show” made it to the press & beyond

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Avatar Expression

I am still chewing over some comments on metrics and while I think it over I decided to take a quick look at avatars and expression. A question was asked in a forum along the lines of whether Second Life is a good medium or not for education?

I believe that yes for raw creativity, accessability, presence and simulation it is a great medium, but as learning relies heavily on communication it is hampered because much of human communication is non-verbal, we are hitting a hurdle and most do not realize it.

Someone asked if “non-verbal” communication would dissappear?

No. We will find work arounds for now. We have been for years.

IM and Micro Chunking

For example with Instant Messaging (IM) language has become compressed and we use emoticons to express emotion. Micro-chunked formats like Jaiku, Twitter, or Pownce also incite compression because in many instances Web to SMS services limit characters to 140 or so.This also exerts a force on how we express thought and use language. We adapt our messages and form “work arounds”. It is so common as to permeate popular cell phone commercials.

I have even played Uni-code characters in Twitter and thought how that might be used like a pseudo-cuneiform script. Cuneiform is one of the earliest known forms of written expression. Created by the Sumerians from ca. 3000 BC it started as as a system of pictographs. The pictorial representations faded and became simplified and more abstract.

Cultural Illiteracy

The same holds true in the work place and in different cultures. In other cultures there are numerous non-verbal cues as an American I never pick up on, because I do not know the language. Either we misunderstand or we adapt and find workarounds.

Online Board or Strategy Games

Even online card games or chess game strategies force us to relearn or change tactics. Even in logic games like chess opponents can “read” critical non-verbal feedback. A furrowed brow over moving a rook, or a smirk as a knight forks a king with check and limbs a queen. If chess is subject to this, it is no surprise that poker or blackjack or card games which use “tells” or non-verbal cues are really affected. I don’t know if anyone has monitored say “cursor” or “mouse behavior” or even eye tracking, but I think we send these signals because we are conditioned too.

The Misleading Avatar

Avatars, and there are many forms, can be extremely misleading. Even in expressive worlds like Second Life where customization is paramount. The Avatar may look healthy and fine, but the person or personality driving it might actually feel sick or have a disablity or send signals we cannot read because they do not translate.

I came to realize this when I realized how difficult it was for an avatar to express grief or another to provide solace to that Avatar and this has happened twice.

As a society we have not really “scripted” for that yet…we have scripted for lots of other stuff though…hugs, kisses, and other “behavior”, but a wide range of emotions or expressions are missing. Perhaps they are still too “synthetic” so we have to rely on overt behaviors and interpret them.

Somehow I think we will get there, or get closer, as 3D worlds become more integral to our lives because non-verbal communication is critical to everything we do. We cannot afford to “work-around” too much.

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Mark from 45n5 was paying attention to what I have been saying about Attention = Revenue. He did an interesting video on the Attention = Revenue and Scalability.

You can view Mark’s video on his blog or the widget below, I would check out his blog for some of the follow up comments.

So Mark, by commenting on my blog, you got my attention. Enough that I am going to highlight it and it might get other’s attention. You might have gotten it quicker had you track backed or “signaled” in some form that I would see it quicker. Many scoff at trackbacks…or think they are merely “link bait”. To me they act as a very simple “mirror signal” that says “I received your message and I am commenting on it here”.

I will leave you with a few more questions…

What is the best way to measure attention? (Links in, or page views, etc are archaic forms of measurement)

Have you decided whose attention you want to get? (This is part strategy- who do you want to hear that tree falling in the forest?)

What is the best way to measure revenue? (Revenue may not always be dollars.)

How can you prepare your operations to receive revenue? (Think beyond CPC or performance marketing)

And a note of caution. Once you get fleeting attention be wary that you don’t lose it by trying to flip to the Revenue side of the equation too quickly.

How can small operations scale?

Let me answer that briefly and simply…

Either you are really good at what you do and one of the rare personalities that can attract a fan base.

Technology, automation and scripting are good forms to accomplish some tasks thus having that ability or partnering with those who do is essential.

One way to scale is to focus on community incubation. Communities can scale, but building them and growing them, and sustaining them are difficult.

This leads to a final thought…fandom. Attention and creating a fan base or a base of brand advocates are closely tied together…

No matter the size of one’s business or operation you should think of yourself as a “brand”. This will extend your thinking longer term.

Cheers to those paying attention…

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I started into micro lending to help out entrepreneurs in 3rd world nations. Let me go back to how and why. I am a curious cat…

I am glad I found John Hunter’s information packed blog after his science fiction comment on Ender’s Game…(one of the few who read all the novels I think…ok I suffered through them all.)

John, among others, left some feedback on my science fiction ponderings.

At any rate thanks John for your comments on science fiction and I am glad (can’t quite match you) you got me moving in making a difference. In my Kiva case I was able to fund the remainder of a loan for this lady.

Saleh Lie is forty-years old and married with one child. She sells clothes and with her previous loans she diversified her business so that she now sells onions, sauce pans, tomato paste, etc. Saleh also opened a small shop in Kabala’s market and employed her nephew to run it. She is planning to expand her business and build a small family house. Saleh said she would like to save some income to build a small house for her grandchildren. She is requesting a loan of $275 to expand her inventory.

My action was based on his blog post that I found after John had left some feedback on Ender’s Game.

John said:

Ender’s Game is great. Another point, Valentine and Peter engage dueling mock personas. They don’t just impersonate one person they impersonate both and then debate with each other (and if I remember right at some point one debates the mock personas against each other by themselves). Though maybe this stuff takes place in Speaker for the Dead.

And that effort is not to have the mock personas win or lose directly but rather through the public debate shape the way real people think and view issues in a way that Val and especially Peter want.

Ender’s Game, and Sci-Fi, Podcasts from Jeff Doak on Ambient Findability to Social Comments on to Twitters among other Sci-fi readers seeing it as a blueprint and I circle around and micro fund- alltogether new to me…micro media and being social. It changes us- our behaviors. If you think about it- someone far away is able to fund their business, move on, get help, whatever… I know because after quite some time I was surprised to get an update, by e-mail about Saleh Lie who has made her first repayment.

Via E-mail

The business you have loaned to, Saleh Lie, has made a repayment of
$28.00. The total amount repaid is now $56.00. This repayment will be
divided amongst all the lenders who helped to fund this business,
depending upon the percentage each lender contributed.

Please note that these funds will not be credited to your Kiva account
until the loan is repaid in full or when the loan term is complete. At
that time, you will be able to withdraw these funds from Kiva.org or to
re-lend these funds to a new business.

Kiva.org is a great way to give and you can take the money out or keep lending it to another person. I hope someone picks up the baton and microfunds- let me know. Thanks to all of those who caused this social chain reaction. Sometimes Good things happen to good people we just seem to talk more about the bad.

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IT UNFOLDS PART DEUX

In case you missed it Eldritch Errors Part II has commenced and was shot in the mountains of West Virginia. (See Production Crew) My only regret was not being able to make the journey due to health so I have to be content with story line development and watching it unfold. I do regret missing my acting debut, then again, maybe the world is better for it. Oh the lament as this ARG (not sure if that fits or just immersive fiction) was in my home state.

For marketers or story tellers, or SIM builders or anyone wanting to see the style of creation dissected I refer you to http://www.schmeldritch.com.

THERE IS AN ERROR IN MY SOUP
Eldtrich Errors

the story

You are a Sentry, part of a group that discovered something unspeakable in April 2007, something that has pursued you ever since. Together we are Providence, part of a dream prophecy about a city in chaos that fills the nightmares of B.A. Saint-Feline, who does not dream alone. This is your story, this is our story.
Book 2 (09.07): Scream in the Mountains

“Two minutes later, another cat came into the room. It was black as midnight, and as large as the biggest dog. It lay down among the red-hot coals, lazily batting them with enormous paws. Then it walked over to the other cat and said: ‘What shall we do with him?’

“The first cat replied: ‘We should not do anything until Emmet comes’.”

- “Wait Until Emmet Comes,” traditional folktale as retold by S.E. Schlosser

When JJason dared the Conclave to contact him via a maildrop, he didn’t imagine that the shadowy group would take him up on the offer. The letter from Exu hinted at answers, included the strange annontations and symbols he wrote on a map of swan migrations. The more we looked into the map, the more we found stories of telescopes, quiet zones and things hidden in the mountains of the Virginias. Exu implied whatever we had stumbled into was related to these tantalizing bits. That investigation lead us to fragments in a filesharing system from Dr. Elizabeth Riley — a presentation, a poem, a song and yet another map. Together, they suggested our world is full of unexplained noises, including something called the “Scream” in the Virginias responsible for the collapse of a radio telescope. What is Exu trying to tell us, and what have we gotten ourselves into?

OBSERVATION POINTS

From Eldritch http://www.eldritcherrors.com/about.php

protagonist

As an immersive experience, the story is as much about you and your experiences as it is any fictional creation. You will find yourself interacting with others, real and seemingly real, throughout your stay. The discoveries that you make, alone or together, can change your entire experience. The world may have been conceived by us, but the story is yours.

Brian Clark of GMD has always been light years ahead of the pack and I am fortunate to call him a mentor and collaborator on many strange projects. This is where I and others feel “advertising” might head. An experience of immersion where the backdrop is created, but people interact and move the story along. Sound familiar? Think Audi: Art of the Heist, or Sega’s Beta-7.

This one tackles the dangers of computer security in a way that is downright scary and meant to be. Challenging the one immersed to really think about “Pressing OK”. Because you SHOULD think long and hard…

computer security

Oh, the dangers that lie hidden in the bits and bytes swirling around us on a daily basis. The Sentry Outpost is filled with experts on all matters of computer security and, although danger will always be lurking in the shadows, the integrity of both your machine and your mind is of great concern. Don’t fear your lack of technical prowess; there is always somebody close at hand with a deeper understanding of these matters, and you’re always in a position to learn more. The question of “how” may often be asked, but it is no more important than the question of “why” - a question that even the most innocent computer user can answer.

Why computer security with Lovecraft? After years of fighting in the trenches I still do not feel we are getting the message across, and it truly is disheartening. What better way to teach than to immerse? It is no secret Clark plucked me up (used) as a primary character (I can say no more), but you can get his take here on Sentries.

Chris Boyd (a/k/a PaperGhost) and Wayne Porter are Sentries in a very real sense of the word. Capturing a taste of what their experience is like when they track down malware and the people behind it was part of the inspiration for the Sentry Outpost and what horrors might be waiting out there for you to discover. In the right circles, their exploits are legendary — not only for revealing whole new types of threats, but also for the sense of snarky humor with which they document those discoveries.

Snarky humor is more a function of Boyd’s legendary style and he had no idea… Aye- sorry Chris.

I still think the computer security industry could take clues from this model and there must be a push toward education. Paperghost’s VitalSecurity.org is a good start and some of the work at Spywareguide.com Blog hits the ribs. It is in the story telling and not dry reports and numbers that reach people. If we can reach people and entertain while we do it we might reform some of the more wanton and dangerous behaviors. That was my hope at least. The current path is not working and not enough is spent on prevention.

For that matter marketers, teachers, advertisers, even virtual world creators in Second Life or anyone creative or wanting to rise above the din might look at this and wonder if story telling is a more effective way to rise above the clutter of messages that people are barraged with everyday. I think so. However it is not easy and takes a talented crew to pull off a full-blast campaign. The number of cogs and wheels that must turn would astound a Swiss watch maker.

STILL PLAYING

NOW PLAYING: The Scream in the Mountains - CATCH UP & JUMP IN. Dive in or play it safe and watch from the sidelines…

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Prokofy gives me his take on CSI:NY Episode regarding metrics. Now I will give mine.

Wayne Porter has some SL CSI:NY metrics, but they are merely taken from the Lindens’ own pages, and don’t look like anything new, not even the “baby avatar” increase –

Correct. Exactly. DId I allude otherwise?

and I don’t know where he even gets 50,000 concurrent as I was watching assiduously, refreshing and keeping a record, and I actually saw it go to 41,000 then down to 38,000 over 3 hours. To be sure, a few days later it crept up to 56,000. Sales of Lindens are brisker, and went up to a whopping L$70 million today, but that’s to be attributed to Halloween.

What was the rate of your refresh? Was it consistent? Did you take any breaks?

The real numbers to look at for CBS and the Sheep are their actual sales sites, shop.onrez.com and the special CBS site
— which I can’t even find in Google right now.

What is your background- out of curiosity? There are a wide range of metrics to look at and if cookies were employed in tracking far more accurate ones. Sales on OnRez? If you want to go deep into this I am happy to do so. While that is an interesting metric, the total dollars are not huge. Far better types of data in a properly configured system would be more valuable to CBS.

I think it was clear the metrics I quote and gave counter suggestions as to what they might mean are some (quick) betters ways to measure a number of traditional 2web metrics. Some could include network class, location, medium, bounce, TOS, AVPPV, LTV, AVB, Basket Abandoment, etc, etc, .I was in-world during the show and your numbers hit around what I saw when I bothered to glance up. I quoted their metrics directly from the blog at the time…and offered what I felt would be more useful more metrics. For example:

What I said and I shall clarify:

- Total sign ups continues to climb but they are like unqualified leads. Throw it out the window unless you want to develop an attrition factor or “sleep” factor.

Summary- so what? Poor GUI, and poor indoctrination of AVs (avatars) into the complex physics and even vertigo often experienced and I can probably run an attrition rate on those numbers and the longer term “conversion” (how do we want to define it? And would be lack luster… )

- More interesting would be Change in Concurrent users per minute or login delta. Especially Login Delta of Accounts created on the Day of exposure. Login Deltas of New Avatars and Login Frequency are really two critical health metrics that must be watched.

This would be interesting just to judge the media’s impact and curiosity at large as well as grid health.

- A longer term metric of great value would be conversion of Free to Premium and also factoring in cookie duration and attrition through deletion and chace attrition to normalize. (I believe negative in September for awhile.). Frankly this is where LL really needs to work or some leadership. A 512k lump of “server space” and a tiny stipend of L$ really is NOT a compelling factor for premium pay. Start by doubling groups! Hint.

I stand by this. The “right” to hold a virtual 512m plot really isn’t that great of deal and the tiny stipend is laughable. Start with advanced communication options, perks, double the groups, Up the IM cap. I mean get real…communication is very inefficient as I am sure you are aware.

- 51k New signups is like a small baby avatar boom, although in early April and a couple of other dates post there were similiar spikes, although not as high numbers.

In the end they had a nice rush but we I think we should calculate attrition q month and give the prolonged burst q 3 months. So let’s hold our breaths. Even so prime time TV had the largest spike, there were other similar spikes prior this year without the peaks and valleys for a prolonged period.

I did not set around refreshing an agent over and over. I do not think that would even give you an accurate number. How did you do this? What was the time? Was it fairly accurate?

- Peak Concurrency of 50k. Actually nothing incredible here. I believe we saw numbers like this in September.

That was per their blog. It has been hit before, and who knows it may have hit 50k for a nanosecond.

- Grid Stability Index of 1.22. Fine. GSI, I believe, is based on open-ended scale, starting at zero (stable) and increasing as indicators show variance from a stable situation this includes both planned and unplanned outages, service interruptions, login failures, and other grid-wide performance issues.The Grid held up.

As for metrics. I have been developing my own. Some new ones that are quote interesting and telling of a mixed story. When I release them, or how- I don’t know yet.

ALEXA ANALYSIS

Let’s get some other analysis corrected.

Even using Alexa numbers to judge is ridiculous, sits use it evaluate eCPC and eCPM due to lack of better tools. I have proven, as well as other e-commerce and security experts that Alexa can be gamed. I have seen Chinese malware inflate (try to inflated they claim) the numbers. In reality I know, at least at one at one point you can you use a serious of 4-5 pcs and a couple of auto-refresh programs set to certain time and inflate the numbers easily. The same with laundered onBlur traffic, hidden iFrames, or Traffic Slams or other methods. The numbers have improved, but they are a crude thumbnail and with such a small differential (the numbers don’t bake well until you get under 20k or lower) it makes your conclusion premature.

IN GOOGLE

I have to ask which inde did you you check against and with what agent and did you use a VMware environment or were their any external changes like .hosts tampering? In terms of the now morphine “SEO” industry one sjhould understand that Google has a thousands of distributed servers (I have plumbed them using various methods- sorry no need to say hi Google) and that not only are the results and databases radically difficult in both SERP ranking, but SERP composition- e.g. media format. They are effected by the fact you are logged into a Google Service or not, Your geographic location. The time of day, random tests and other factors. While there seems to be a “cluster” of searches of SERPS on a many servers they tend to show pages or media chunks with a similar mode, still this is not always the case. Further testing under disparate conditions would be needed to make a blanket statement and test away- we would get different results based on a number of variables up to and including where,who, how, agent, time, and other variable we could never ascertain. Sometimes very similar, sometimes radically different.

This will continue as Google launches their “dark fiber and server” infrastructure play against facebook and continues to use algorithms that are guided by individual behavior and other variables and people bite into search history and that AI.

The same for Yahoo! which is launching Search Intent.
Skewing SERPS from scholarly to commercial via an ajax slider.

SLEX and STABLE

Lastly, ” Slexchange.com shows a pretty stable traffic for that range in the last month.”

Unless you audited their server logs, and it would depends on the technology they use, this is again a “Support the Troops” kind of statement. There are simply far too many ways for sophisticated games- both SEOs specialsts, botnets, rogue agents, malware, and I have even seen virtual botnets created through the use of the triple-obcuscated Action Script injected into mainstream banners that are triggered to do their work when the IP filtering attacks they use allow them to dance around US based QA teams. It happened to MSFT x2 and they had a stellar record. They have hit You Tube and they will hit anyone. This happens ALL THE TIME.

These numbers are hazy reflections, albeit better then what LL provides now for traffic (and what I am trying to solve). Their numbers are probably meant to try to wrap engagement, curiosity, etc by factoring in time, maybe activity, etc. They do a poor job of it, perhaps, like you, it is not a core competency. I have some beta success with that, and that is one place Second Life could shine if they understood these emergent metrics. Heck- properly setup systems that could take the strain would allow us to model WOM.

I find the 2L economy all together “backwards”, but that is to be expected I guess- new. However, in my eyes so many solutions are very, very clear and not that difficult to fix. I share your frustration on that part- like sand-boxing no mod scripts for security hygiene. But I don’t play politics I try to solve problems.

Thanks for posting your thoughts and the reference. What solutions do you propose?

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